Let’s go to overtime – The case for taking bets on draws in Cup Competitions
After an intense analysis of other sports like Ice Hockey and Handball, I tried to switch my thesis to other popular sports. Historically the odds of draws are undervalued. My estimations are that these are related to the human factor that we always want to be on the winning side when rooting for a result. No one likes to watch a football game with more drama than necessary. So, if you can finish the job in 90 mins why go to overtime?
In certain
competitions there are historically proven edges for taking the draw.
I analyzed and
compiled the odds of BetExplorer for Cup Competitions in the most popular ones in
Europe/Asia and South America. The results are stunning.
Taking the
draws blindly made 240 units Profit in all competitions combined.
But the ROI
is comparably low with 0.96%. And there are 18290 matches to bet starting in
the 2017-18 season. So let us be more selective.
The best
ones to take a chance on are: Spanish Copa del Rey with 150 units Profit and
ROI of 8.91%
Coupe de
France with 204 units Profit 13.37% ROI.
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